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☆ The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator says 3 factors will ensure a coming downturn isn't too painful
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The inverted yield curve means that a recession is still likely, the indicator's inventor wrote this week. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe inverted yield curve has been flashing red for 15 months, but don't think that ongoing economic strength makes it a false signal, Campbell Harvey wrote in a Research Affiliates note. "The yield curve indicator suggests growth will substantially slow in 2024. On the business side, past experience with the inverted yield curve has led entities to take preventive action when Treasury rates flip.

Persons: —, Campbell Harvey, Harvey Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob ArnottRob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss finding opportunities in the market, the probability of recession, and more.

Persons: Rob Arnott Rob Arnott, Squawk Organizations: Research Affiliates

☆ 'Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming': An investing pioneer explains why he sees 50% chance of a downturn in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investing pioneer Rob Arnott said there's a 50-50 chance of a recession in the coming year. "People will say that recessions don't start with a booming economy," Arnott told CNBC Thursday. "There's a couple of headwinds that play against growth and in favor of value," Arnott said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe said persistent inflation supports the case for value stocks rather than growth stocks, since they provide a greater margin of safety. Elevated inflation, too, sustains higher bond yields, which suggests a higher discount rate for long-term future growth, and ultimately "reduces the value of growth stocks relative to value stocks."

Persons: Rob Arnott, there's, Arnott, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Research Affiliates

☆ How AI reshapes the economy: Wall Street legends David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott told us massive upheaval is coming for the job market — and overzealous investors are fueling a stock bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Both David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott see big disruption coming for the labor market. AI stocks are also overextended amid the current mania, they said. Rob Arnott says AI will evolve rapidly and upend the labor market. He added: "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty." Beware of an AI-stock bubbleFor Arnott, AI will undoubtedly be good for bottom lines.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Rosenberg, Arnott, Tim Boyle, aren't, Merrill Lynch, it's, Tesla, that's, Gluskin Sheff Rosenberg Organizations: Labor, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, North, Rosenberg Research Locations: North American, ChatGPT

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ What 20 years of equal-weighted indexes that try and improve on the S&P 500 show
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the 20th anniversary of the launch of the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). The index weighs all 500 stocks in the S & P 500 equally, as opposed to the S & P 500, the modern version of which was launched in 1957 as a market-cap weighted index. "Broad, market cap weighted indexes are the purest form of indexing," Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, told me. With north of $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, and getting larger every year, there is an awful lot of passive money at stake. Invesco says that over the last 20 years, an investment in the RSP has outperformed the market cap weight S & P 500: Market cap weighted investing vs. equal-weighting (last 20 years) S & P 500 (SPY) + 553% Equal weight S & P 500 + 667% Source: Invesco What do you own when you own an equal-weight S & P 500?

☆ The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator now says his model will prove correct again as the Fed continues to hike rates — and that a downturn will strike anytime
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator. Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. Harvey's yield curve looks at yields on three-month bills and 10-year notes; the latter are normally higher. Another reason Harvey's view has dimmed is that short-term inflation expectations have come down, meaning the real-yield curve (which is adjusted for inflation expectations) has now inverted. In December, Harvey said that much higher short-term inflation expectations relative to long-term expectations meant that real yields weren't inverted.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Rob Arnott says there's now an 80% chance of a recession amid a credit crunch. Here are his top recommendations on where to park your money — including one trade he believes will deliver 15% yearly re
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He said US value stocks and developed economy non-US stocks offer the best returns. But there are still opportunities for big returns in US value stocks, he said. But an even bigger opportunity lies in non-US stocks in developed economies, which Arnott believes will return 15% on a yearly basis over the next decade. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is one way to gain exposure to non-US stocks, while the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) offers exposure to US value stocks. Arnott made the same calls on non-US stocks and US value stocks back in December.

☆ Rob Arnott pioneered a stock investing technique that exploded into a trillion-dollar industry. He presents a new approach to help everyday investors beat the market, even in crises.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates pioneered "smart beta" investing, which has gone global. Arnott and his firm say they've created a better way to index stocks than market cap weighting. Indexes have become the stock market's North Star, as passive investing turned into a global investment trend over the last decade. Meanwhile, Research Affiliates itself has grown to advise on $141 billion in wealth by the end of 2022. Arnott and his team at Research Affiliates suggest looking at the economic footprint of companies instead of their market capitalization.

CASE FOR A SWIFT RETREAT1/ ENERGY PRICESTumbling energy prices are pulling down headline inflation. U.S. inflation rose 6.4% in January, the smallest rise since October 2021, from a 9.1% high last June. Instead, corporate profits have accounted for the lion's share of domestic euro zone price pressures since 2021, ECB data shows. A recent IMF study going back to the 1960s found that only in a small minority of cases where wages and inflation rose together for several quarters did sustained inflation result. The chief executive of Gunvor, a top oil trader, sees oil prices rising in the second half of 2023 on renewed Chinese demand.

☆ Why top Wall Street investors say there's never been a better time to invest your money overseas — and where they say the 7 best opportunities are
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But when US stocks deliver low annualized returns over a 10-year period, international stocks almost always deliver better performance. They included: global value vs. growth; emerging value equities; Japanese small value; and European small value. Among those, Inker and GMO are plugging the most money into global value and emerging market value stocks. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom. "Emerging-markets value, international value represent bargains.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ The world's top investment firms pay Rob Arnott for advice. He shares 2 trades he thinks will deliver 15% annualized returns over the next decade — and breaks down why there's a 'decent likelihood' th
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The first opportunity is in international developed market value stocks, which are represented by the EAFE Value Index. Investors can gain exposure to developed market value stocks through funds like the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) and the Vanguard International Value Fund (VTRIX). The second is in emerging market value stocks, which he said have an average Shiller P/E of 10x. The iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor UCITS ETF (EMVL) and the Dimensional Emerging Markets Value ETF (DFEV) offer exposure to emerging market value stocks. The Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) is one way to gain exposure to US value stocks.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ The world's top investment firms pay Rob Arnott for advice. He shares 2 trades he thinks will deliver 15% annualized returns over the next decade — and breaks down why inflation could remain elevated
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

☆ The godfather of the inverted yield curve breaks down why his famous recession indicator with a perfect track record won't be accurate this time around
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The inverted yield curve has preceded the last eight recessions. Right now, short-term inflation expectations are much higher than long-term inflation expectations, which means the real-yield on longer-duration bonds are higher. "You've got an inverted yield curve — people know that that's got a very strong track record. The inverted yield curve's legacyThe inverted yield curve has come to be revered as an extremely reliable harbinger of economic pain. December 2022. ustreasuryyieldcurve.comDecember 2012. www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.comAs for what Harvey thinks for the future of the yield curve as a recession indicator?

☆ How a former Goldman Sachs whiz kid living in Puerto Rico exploited a generational shift in investing to become one of Millennium's most profitable traders
▼ + stars: | 2022-01-24 | by ( Alex Morrell | Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Millennium has dominated the index-rebalance trade thanks to Glen Scheinberg, 35, and his SRBL team. One of the hottest trading strategies in recent years has required an intense fixation on some of Wall Street's supposedly dullest financial products: index funds and exchange-traded funds. The SRBL team was born from a Goldman Sachs trading deskIn 2014, Millennium poached 27-year-old Scheinberg from Goldman Sachs' program-trading desk — the team at Wall Street banks that trades baskets of stocks using algorithms. For Scheinberg's team, 2020 wasn't a one-off. Millennium's prodigy decamps to paradise for tax savings and bird-watchingDespite its success, much about the SRBL team remains shrouded in mystery.

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